Lacrosse season is almost upon us once again! Here are my predictions for each NLL team – I will revisit this posting at the end of the season to see how I did.

Attention Facebook readers: You might want to click the “View Original Post” link at the bottom of this note. Facebook sometimes messes up the formatting.

 

East

Boston Blazers

In: Matt Abbott, Dave Cutten, Ryan Hotaling, Mike Kirk, John Ortolani, Matt Smalley, Mike Stone

Out: D Carter Livingstone, F Jay Thorimbert, D Dilan Graham, D Curtis Ptolemy, F Bryan Bendig, T Jason Bloom

Burning question: Will the Blazers suffer the sophomore jinx after an impressive inaugural season?

Comments: With Cosmo in net and no significant changes, I don’t see any reason why the Blazers shouldn’t at least contend for a playoff spot in the East again this year. However, I think the Knighthawks and Rock improved more during the off-season.

Prediction: Fifth

 

Buffalo Bandits

In: D Chris Driscoll, F Frank Resetarits, F AJ Shannon, F Jon Harasym, D Darryl Gibson, G Angus Goodleaf

Out: D Pat McCready, D Clay Hill, G Mike Thompson, D Phil Sanderson, D Rich Kilgour, F Cory Bomberry, F Brian Croswell, GM Darris Kilgour (though he’s still the coach)

Burning question: Will Tavares ever age?

Comments: For a team that went to the division final last year, there are a lot of changes on the Bandits roster. Mike Thompson was a better-than-average backup goalie, but he’s gone and they have a rookie backing up Ken Montour – if Montour falters at all, the Bandits might have a problem. Losing Sanderson, Kilgour, and McCready will hurt, but Chris Driscoll was one of my favourite Rock players over the last few years, and Darryl Gibson is a solid defender as well. The Bandits have been so good for so long now that it’s hard to count them out as long as Tavares and Steenhuis are around.

Prediction: Third

 

Orlando Titans

In: D Mike Ammann, D Steve Ammann, D Michael Evans, F Dan Hardy, F Ryan Learn, F Kenny Nims

Out: F Jamie Rooney, T Keevin Galbraith, both Titans fans

Burning question: The Titans went to the finals last year, and are likely to be in contention this year as well, but will anyone in Orlando care?

Short term prediction: Second

Long term prediction: The Titans will last a year, maybe two, in Orlando before either moving again or folding for good.

 

Philadelphia Wings

In: F Dan Teat, F Bill McGlone, F Kevin Huntley, F John Christmas, D Bob Snider, F Jason Crosbie, F Josh Sims

Out: F Athan Iannucci, F Merrick Thomson (for a while), F A.J. Shannon, D Rob Van Beek, F Jon Harasym, F David Mitchell, D George Castle, D Benson Erwin, T Matt Bocklet

Burning question: Does gaining Dan Teat and Jason Crosbie make up for losing Athan Iannucci and Merrick Thomson? (Answer: no.) Bonus question: Iannucci will miss the entire 2010 season, but will he ever again live up to the expectations he set in 2008?

Comments: If the Wings were counting on Athan Iannucci to help them rebound from a lacklustre 2009, they had to change their tune during the offseason when he announced that he would miss all of 2010. They picked up a couple of scoring threats, notably Dan Teat, but did nothing to help their defense. Maybe they’re hoping to win a lot of 21-18 games. Then just before the new year arrived, the Wings put Merrick Thomson on the Physically Unable to Perform list, and haven’t said how long he’s out for. That’s bad news for Wings fans.

Prediction: Sixth

 

Rochester Knighthawks

In: F John Grant, F Scott Evans, F Andrew Potter, G Aaron Bold, F Peter Jacobs, D Regy Thorpe, GM Curt Styres

Out: D Sandy Chapman, G Ben Every, D Troy Bonterre, D Pat Cougevan, F Ken Millin, F Dean Hill, D Bill Greer, GM Regy Thorpe

Burning questions: Is Grant fully recovered? Is the Gary Gait experiment over?

Comments: After a disastrous start, the 2009 Knighthawks (minus John Grant and Scott Evans) made the playoffs, losing to the Titans in overtime. Adding Grant and Evans should bring the Knighthawks back into contention. Then again, the 2008 Knighthawks, with Grant and Evans, didn’t make the playoffs.

Prediction: First

 

Toronto Rock

In: F Colin Doyle, D Phil Sanderson, D Pat McCready, D Sandy Chapman, F Mike Hominuck, D Creighton Reid, D Brendon Doran, D Anthony Lackey, F Garrett Billings, F Stephan LeBlanc, D Drew Petcoff, F Kim Squire, GM Terry Sanderson, coach Troy Cordingley

Out: F Lewis Ratcliff, F Luke Wiles, D Chris Driscoll, F Craig Conn, F Matt Carroll, D Peter Lough, F Michael Fleming, D Chad Thompson, F Mark Scherman, F Bill McGlone, F Jason Clark, F Jason Crosbie, GM Mike Kloepfer, coach Jamie Batley

Burning question: I had this entry already written when the Rock had to go and trade for Colin Doyle, so now I have to write it all again. The original burning question was “Who are all these new people and why are they no better than last year?” Now it’s: “Can the Rock find the old Blaine Manning now that Colin Doyle is leading the search party?”, although having just gone through the In and Out lists, the “who are all these new people” part still definitely applies.

Comments: Can’t tell the players, or the captain, coach, GM, or owner, without a program. Stepping up the defense (which they have definitely done) was absolutely necessary, but someone other than Colin Doyle has to score goals. Blaine Manning has dropped in productivity (both in numbers and visibility on the floor) since Doyle left, so he needs to find his way again. If Watson gets hurt, the Rock are in deep trouble in net – I just don’t think Steve Dietrich is up to the task of being a starting NLL goalie any more.

As much as I love seeing Doyle back, I wouldn’t call the Rock a lock for the playoffs quite yet. Four of last year’s top six scorers (Ratcliff, Wiles, Crosbie, and Conn) are gone. If Doyle’s offense replaces Ratcliff’s, and Hominuck replaces Crosbie, we’re still down over 100 points from Wiles and Conn. Then again, Blaine Manning may rebound from a few off seasons with the return of Doyle, and Garrett Billings is a highly rated scoring prospect. Kim Squire’s career was cut short due to personal problems off the floor, but if he’s managed to exorcise those demons, he can be a very exciting player to watch. The defense is a lot better, but the goalie tandem of Watson and Dietrich is probably the oldest in the history of the NLL.

Prediction: Fourth

 

West

Calgary Roughnecks

In: T Rob Van Beek, F Carlton Schuss, D Rob Kirkby, D Craig Gelsvik, F Craig Conn, G Chris Levis, coach Dave Pym

Out: F Curt Malawsky, F Kyle Goundrey, D Greg Hinman, D Kyle Couling, G Pat Campbell, coach Troy Cordingley, assistant coach Terry Sanderson

Burning question: Where Terry goes, Josh has been sure to follow, and so GM Brad Banister probably has Terry Sanderson’s phone number blocked. Is Josh even allowed to talk to his dad?

Comments: Malawsky is now an assistant coach, but they’ve got Craig Conn to replace him, and they’ve also brought defenders Rob Kirkby and Craig Gelsvik back from retirement. But it’s rare that a team lose the head coach (and an assistant coach) in the offseason following a championship win. We’ll see how much of Calgary’s success from last year came from the coach. I suspect a fair bit of it did, but this is still a very talented team.

Prediction: First

 

Colorado Mammoth

In: F Ilija Gajic, F Alex Gajic, F Chad Culp, F Cory Conway, F Cliff Smith, D Ryan McFayden, D Kevin Unterstein, D Matt Wilson, F Shaun Dhaliwal, F Peter Veltman, T Brad Richardson

Out: G Gee Nash, F Dan Carey, D Jim Moss, F Gavin Prout, F Andrew Potter, D Ray Guze, D Matt Leveque, F Tyler Crompton, F Matt Danowski, F Chris Gill, F Gary Rosyski, T Tim Booth, T Bryan Safarik, T Mike Ward

Burning question: How will the Mammoth deal with the loss of the only captain in team history? Bonus question: Are there any more Gajic brothers?

Comments: Lots of changes for the Mammoth. Alex Gajic and Cliff Smith were Colorado’s first round draft picks. But the Mammoth weren’t happy with having two of the top five picks, they parted with the only captain in team history to get the #2 overall pick Ilija Gajic.

This might be the first step in a rebuilding process for Colorado, who had six years of dominance before finishing with their first-ever sub-.500 season last year. It’s not like the team will suck this year, but I don’t see them finishing any higher than third.

Prediction: Fourth

 

Edmonton Rush

In: T Brodie Merrill, F Gavin Prout, F Derek Malawsky, F Ryan Powell, D Scott Stewart, D Ryan Ward, G Matt Disher, GM/coach Derek Keenan

Out: F Ryan Benesch, D Callum Crawford, D Scott Self, F Dan Teat, GM/coach Bob Hamley

Burning question: Is this the year the Rush finally don’t suck?

Comments: Adding Merrill, Prout, Powell, and Malawsky certainly adds to the possibility of a non-last-place finish – this would only be the second time in five seasons.

Prediction: Third

 

Minnesota Swarm

In: F Ryan Benesch, D Scott Self, D Callum Crawford, D Alex Turner, F Sean Thomson, F Brock Boyle

Out: D Ryan Ward, F Chad Culp, D Ian Rubel

Burning question: The Swarm have been a pretty decent team over the last few years – even winning the East two years ago – but have never won a playoff game. Is this the year?

Prediction: Fifth

 

Washington Stealth

In: F Luke Wiles, F Lewis Ratcliff, T Tyler Codron, F Joel Degarno

Out: F Colin Doyle, G Aaron Bold

Burning question: Where the fuck is Everett, Washington?

Comments: Colin Doyle tied Josh Sanderson’s league assists record (though he was later eclipsed by Sanderson and Dan Dawson) and won the league scoring title, and Rhys Duch set a new rookie scoring record, but overall, 2009 was a disappointing season for the Stealth. The Stealth now have Lewis Ratcliff and Luke Wiles but lost Doyle – numbers-wise, this is a net positive for Washington, but losing a player like Doyle is more than just numbers. Still, I think the Stealth are in pretty good shape for 2010.

Prediction: Second

Long Term Prediction: The Stealth had a decent team last year but couldn’t draw flies in San Jose, which has a population of almost a million people. So they moved to Everett, a town of about 100,000 people 30 miles north of Seattle. This is like the Rock moving to Barrie, except that Barrie is 25% bigger than Everett. They have a class-A baseball team called (I’m not making this up) the Everett AquaSox. The Stealth will continue to have the lowest attendance in the league (though it might still be higher than in San Jose), and will be gone before you can say “Columbus Landsharks”. Though maybe I’m wrong and they’ll get lots of people driving down from southern B.C. to keep the numbers up.

 

Overall Standings

East

1. Rochester
2. Orlando
3. Buffalo
4. Toronto
5. Boston
6. Philadelphia

West

1. Calgary
2. Washington
3. Edmonton
4. Colorado
5. Minnesota

I’ve written before about stability in the NLL, since teams relocate more often than a Waterloo co-op student. The trend continues. After five years of low attendance in San Jose, the Stealth are moving to Everett, Washington, a suburb of Seattle. As much as I want to see this succeed, I just can’t.

The successful teams in the NLL are all downtown – Colorado, Philadelphia, Toronto, Calgary, Buffalo, even Rochester. Of course, New York proves that this isn’t always going to work, but the last time the NLL tried to move a team into a suburb of a major city (Chicaco), that team folded after two seasons because of low attendance, and Seattle is smaller than Chicago and has no lacrosse history that I know of. It’s fairly close to BC, which has lots of lacrosse history, so that could help.

I think the naming of the team could have a big effect. Having the team called the Everett whatevers will not help convince people that this is a big-time league (and quite honestly, having a team in Rochester doesn’t help with that either). All the press releases I’ve seen about this move specifically say that the team is moving to Everett, not Seattle, so I doubt it will be called the Seattle whatevers. If it’s called the Washington whatevers, I think that will help, but regardless of the name, unless tons of Vancouver people make the drive down, I don’t see this team lasting more than a year, maybe two.

I attended my first-ever field lacrosse game tonight at BMO Field in Toronto, as the new Toronto Nationals took on the Chicago Machine. I have been to many box lacrosse* games over the last eight years, including every Toronto Rock home game but one, as well as a number of games in Buffalo and a couple in Rochester, and one or two OLA games too. But until tonight, I was a field virgin. In a nutshell, it was fun, but I wouldn’t trade my Rock tickets for Nats tickets. The amount of scoring was about the same, but the pace of the game is slower and I found it less exciting than box lacrosse. It’s really the same pace for the most part, but the field is much bigger so regardless of how fast you run, you can’t make it from one end to the other in a few seconds and since three defensive players are required to stay on the defensive side, breakaways are just about impossible.

* – Technically, the game played in the NLL is actually indoor lacrosse, not box lacrosse. Box is the form played in the OLA, which has minor differences from the NLL game. But for the most part, box and indoor lacrosse are interchangeable.

Biggest complaint: I found it harder to follow the ball. The fact that it was orange helped, but the field is so much bigger than the box floor that if you look away for a second, you lose track of the ball. Maybe what they need is a blue line to appear when the ball is passed and then when someone takes a shot… ah, never mind.

The midfielders have very long sticks, which I assumed were used primarily for long passes, but there were only a handful of those in this game. It didn’t really seem to me that the long sticks were much of an advantage.

Cool stuff:

• The Nationals won! They are now 2-0.
• A bunch of fans behind us kept calling out to Colin Doyle. In the fourth quarter, Colin acknowledged them with big smiles and waves. It’s unlikely San Jose would do it, but there isn’t a player on the Rock roster that I wouldn’t trade to get Doyle back in a Rock uniform.
• The Nationals team is a total powerhouse of NLL players. Gait, Iannucci, Dawson, Doyle, Zywicki, Williams, Grant, Thomson, Snider, Prout, Brodie Merrill, Point, Powless, Vyse… that’s ten MVP awards, four rookie of the year awards, countless scoring titles, and along with Patrick Merrill and Jordan Hall, four first-overall draft picks. Not to mention that they have Ken Montour, the reigning NLL goalie of the year, as well as Matt Vinc, another standout NLL goalie, and neither of them is a goaltender for the Nats.
• Goalies don’t look any different from any other player on the field apart from the big pool-skimmer stick, and they don’t do the stick-head-between-the-legs stance that box goalies do. It always looks to me like a field goalie is just another player standing in the net, looking out-of-place. But those goalies really know what they’re doing, and made some pretty impressive stops, including several “how the hell did he stop that?” saves. And in at least a couple of cases, they’d not only leave their crease to play the ball, they’d take it more than halfway upfield. Seems like a dumb idea to me, but hey, I’m the field virgin here, what do I know?

Not so cool stuff:

• Note to Nationals management: keep the “hosts” away from the booze. The “long pole dancing” thing was silly, and the bit with one of the hosts singing “Summer of ’69” with whichever fans wanted to join him was just embarrassing. He may not have been, but it really did look like he was hammered.
• The one-page “program” that they gave out listed the roster of both teams on one side, and has a big picture of Nationals player Shawn Williams on the other side. But Williams didn’t play in the game. He was told that of the twelve games in the season, he’d play six of them, because they have such a large roster. But he wasn’t told this until after the first game last weekend, in which he did play. He said that if he’d known he’d be a scratch in this game, he wouldn’t have played in the first one. Shawn has lots of family in and around Toronto, so I’m sure he would have liked to play in this game.
• I need to learn the game better. There were a number of times that the play was stopped, the ref went to talk to someone, and then play resumed, with the player who had the ball before retaining possession. I couldn’t figure out why the play was stopped in the first place. And when the ball was thrown out of bounds, it seemed that the person nearest the ball when it went out was awarded the ball, regardless of who threw it. This doesn’t make sense to me, but it explains why some players would go sprinting towards the line (not always towards the ball) when they had no chance of stopping the ball from going out.
• Looking at the scoreboard and seeing that it was the 4th half of the game just screamed “FAIL”. Surely that word on the scoreboard can be changed from “Half” to “Quarter”.

I’m now 5-for-6 in playoff game predictions, having missed the Buffalo-New York game last weekend but getting the Calgary-San Jose game right. Luckily I didn’t post score predictions because I would have been way wrong. Who could have predicted 5 goals for San Jose (who scored 20 last week) and only 3 for Buffalo, including 0 for Steenhuis and Tavares? Who could have predicted Matt King shutting out San Jose for three periods and outscoring Colin Doyle and his goal being the game-winner?

New York vs. Calgary

Given the goaltending performances last week, we might be looking at a 3-2 game, which is unheard of in lacrosse. Then again, 17-5 and 9-3 scores are pretty unheard of anyway, and we had both of those last week. Even as good as Vinc was last week and as strong an offensive team as the Titans are, I don’t think they’re a match for Calgary. As long as Calgary doesn’t get too cocky after last weekend’s blowout, the Championship is theirs to lose.

Prediction: Calgary

Unfortunately, I will be vacationing in Las Vegas this weekend, so I won’t be able to watch the game. Well, perhaps “unfortunately” is the wrong word to use here.

Since I was four out of four in my first round picks (did I mention that already?), I will stick with the picks I already made for the second round as well.

East

Buffalo vs. New York

Second verse, same as the first. The Bandits are hungry to repeat as champions, and I just don’t see New York being able to stop them (though I think Calgary has a good chance). It won’t be a blowout, but I don’t think it’ll be that close either.

Prediction: Buffalo

West

San Jose vs. Calgary

I said in the first round picks that I don’t like betting against Colin Doyle in the playoffs, but this Calgary team is just too strong. The Stealth have too many rookies to go all the way this year, but if they can get off to a good start next year, the Stealth could be the team to beat next year.

Prediction: Calgary

So… let’s see how accurate my first round predictions were:

Game	Prediction	Actual result
Rochester – New York	“New York in a close one“	New York won in overtime
Boston – Buffalo	Buffalo	Buffalo won
Colorado – Calgary	Calgary	Calgary won
San Jose – Portland	San Jose	San Jose won

So that would be, let’s see here… carry the one… four for four. A perfect record. I even called the overtime game.

Just sayin’.

East

Rochester vs. New York

Rochester started the season 0-4 and just looked really bad, but they fought hard to recover and beat Philadelphia in a must-win game to make the playoffs, which is a testament to rookie coach Paul Gait. They have survived the loss of John Grant and Scott Evans, plus Pat O’Toole for a few games. On the negative side, we all knew Gary Gait wouldn’t be the multiple-MVP-winning Gary Gait from years gone by, but I think he was even less impactful than expected. Gait didn’t even make the top 50 in scoring. He missed five games, but even if you extrapolate out to 16 games, he’d only be tied for 35th. After Williams (#6) and Evans (T12), the third top scorer on the Knighthawks was Jason Henhawk, tied for 57th. The Titans have six scorers in the top 37.

New York was in second place all year, but ended up tied with both Buffalo and Boston and won the East on tie-breakers. Matt Vinc is one of the best goaltenders in the league, and Casey Powell ended up 8th in the league in scoring despite only playing 13 games. Extrapolating his point total to 16 games you end up with 104, which would have tied him with Dan Dawson for second. The Titans took two of three from the Knighthawks during the regular season, but the first win was early in the season when a struggling Hawks team only allowed them 8 goals, so you could almost call the season series even.

Prediction: New York in a close one

Boston vs. Buffalo

Another toughie. Two strong offensive teams, two outstanding goalies. Boston has nothing to prove – nobody though they’d make it this far – but Buffalo lost their last two games (their last to these same Blazers) and with that, their lock on first place. The days of Buffalo losing games because they took too many stupid penalties are long gone, and I think the Bandits will be back with a vengeance.

Prediction: Buffalo

West

Colorado vs. Calgary

Calgary only lost four games all season, but one of them was to the Mammoth. (Another one, inexplicably, was to the lowly Toronto Rock.) King and Campbell have been the best one-two goalie combo in the league this year, and Josh Sanderson has made Calgary fans forget Lewis Ratcliff. Colorado, on the other hand, finished the season with a win over Edmonton but lost seven of nine before that and as any Star Trek fan will tell you, losing Seven of Nine is a very bad thing indeed. Leyshon and Palidwor played admirably, but the loss of Gee Nash was just too much. Calgary shouldn’t have a problem getting to the west final again.

Prediction: Calgary

San Jose vs. Portland

I find it difficult to go against Colin Doyle’s team in the playoffs. I’ve seen him step his game up a notch (or more) when the games matter the most too many times to think he might fold under pressure. His unprecendented three Championship game MVP awards are a testament to that. San Jose didn’t have a great season, but they won four of five near the end of the season, at the same time that Colorado was losing five of six. I think San Jose will take it, but having said all that, they’ll have trouble getting by Calgary.

Prediction: San Jose

If I was forced to make predictions on round two, I’d have to take Buffalo over New York and Calgary over San Jose, resulting in a rematch of the 2004 Championship – Buffalo in Calgary. I’ll have to give Calgary the edge in another close one. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2009 NLL Champions, the Calgary Roughnecks.

The 2009 NLL regular season has come to a close, so it’s time to look at the predictions I made at the beginning of the season and see how I did.

	Result	My predictions
East
1	New York	Buffalo
2	Buffalo	Philly
3	Boston	New York
4	Rochester	Toronto
5	Philly	Rochester
6	Toronto	Boston
West
1	Calgary	Minnesota
2	Portland	Calgary
3	San Jose	Colorado
4	Colorado	San Jose
5	Minnesota	Portland
6	Edmonton	Edmonton

End result: one correct out of twelve. Ouch. But really, you could argue that I wasn’t that far off. Five teams – Buffalo, Rochester, Calgary, Colorado, and San Jose – were all off by only one. As with my mid-season predictions, if you make two swaps my predictions are very close. Swap Philly and Boston (who predicted that they would finish tied for first?) and four teams miss by one and the other two miss by two. In the west, swap Minnesota and Portland and I get four off-by-one’s and two correct.

I have a copy of Inside Lacrosse magazine from the beginning of the season, and Brian Shanahan made his picks as well, so let’s see how he did:

	Result	Brian Shanahan
East
1	New York	Buffalo
2	Buffalo	Rochester
3	Boston	Toronto
4	Rochester	Philly
5	Philly	New York
6	Toronto	Boston
West
1	Calgary	Minnesota
2	Portland	San Jose
3	San Jose	Colorado
4	Colorado	Edmonton
5	Minnesota	Calgary
6	Edmonton	Portland

Turns out that Shanny’s ouch is worse than mine. None right and only four off by one. The best you can do with two swaps would be New York and Rochester in the east, giving him four off-by-ones and the other two off by three. In the west, you could swap Minnesota and Calgary and get two right, and you’d still have two off by one, but then Edmonton is off by two and Portland by four.

Shanny was more confident about Rochester and Toronto than I was and like me, he thought Minnesota would fare better than they did. But how he got Edmonton finishing ahead of Calgary I don’t know. In fairness, Shanny’s predictions were made before Chicago folded (he had them finishing 6th in the East, between New York and Boston) and therefore before Anthony Cosmo joined the Blazers. They were also made before Paul Gait was hired as Rochester head coach, and before it was announced that the Knighthawks would be missing Shawn Evans for the season.

Maybe Shanny should start reading my blog, instead of me reading his.